Perhaps one of the most improbable sports bets, winning or losing, struck in recent years was the $85,000 placed on Tiger Woods to win the 2019 Masters Tournament in Augusta, Georgia. Notwithstanding the fact that Woods was attempting to win his first major championship since the 2008 US Open, the bet was all the more remarkable for the circumstances under which it was placed.

The bettor in question was James P. Adducci, a 39-year-old Wisconsin man who lived with his ailing 82-year-old father and had never before placed a sports bet. Nevertheless, Adducci sold $55,000 of Amazon shares to raise his stake money and, after being ‘knocked back’ by two other bookmakers, was finally accommodated at 14/1, for the full $85,000, by William Hill.

The rest, as they say, is history. Tiger Woods won his fifth Green Jacket, despite a bogey on the final hole, yielding a profit of $1.19 million for the intrepid Adducci. Not satisfied with the largest golf payout in company history, shortly before the PGA Championship, in May, Adducci placed $100,000 on Tiger Woods to complete the Grand Slam by winning the PGA Championship, US Open and Open Championship at odds of 100/1. The potential payout was $10 million, but the excitement was short-lived as Woods shot 72, 73 in the first two rounds of the PGA Championship to miss the cut by a single stroke.

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin, Adducci originally trained as a commodities trader, but although he described himself as a ‘day trader’, he also confessed to having been $25,000 in debt. He never really explained, at least not adequately, the rationale behind his apparently ‘crazy’ behaviour, but lack of experience certainly proved no hindrance to his success.

You often see individuals selling horse racing tips. These range from the one-man band to companies peddling their trade. In fact, some professional gamblers of old were paid £100,000 per year to give their tips. I’m not sure how successful these business were but they don’t run today. However, there are plenty of horse racing tipsters who sell their information from a few pound a month to perhaps £1000 per year. I imagine there are a few who sell at a much higher price. In fact, I know of a few gamblers who pay several thousand a year for info from given stables. Clearly, no one continues to pay that kind of money without making a return. This kind of service goes all the way to the likes of Tony Bloom’s Starlizard which is a subscription service linked to Asian handicap betting, predominantly, I imagine, on sports such as football. Starlizard has a reputation as being a money-making machine.

But here’s a question: Is the concept of horse racing tips outdated?

My quick answer is yes.

Have you looked at the way most horse racing tipster promote and sell their tips? The platform and format they use to detail their information. It really is such an old, outdated system that’s seen better days. In fact, I am pretty sure most tipping businesses are on a slippery slope to going out of business just because it’s the nature of the beast. Sure, you may make a few quid in the short term (if you are talented and successful) but long term they are selling themselves short.

I always remember my friend Eric Arnold, he sadly passed away in 2019, a truly lovely man, he used to say selling tips was a pointless exercise. I agree with every word. If you really knew something worth selling you’d keep it to yourself. The reason being that anyone who has a set pattern of working will give their secrets away. Give me 60 tips from your leading tipsters and I can understand their formula. The market adjusts to information because it needs to survive. It will chew up your information and spit it out as a worthless piece of scrap. You once had the golden touch but the value has been eroded and that elusive value has disappeared and the next good thing is trending.

The truth is unless you can protect your information you are dead in the water.

That’s why companies such as Starlizard are careful not to give away any information for others to glean. They understand that the only way they can hold onto that advantage is by saying: ‘You give me the money, I will bet for you, and if we make a profit I will give you your share.’

You think they will be giving out tips and information for you or anyone else to peruse?

Not in a million months of Sundays. The reason being they understand how market forces work. You can see the problems companies or tipsters have. You only have to see AT The Races tipster Hugh Taylor. He gives a tip and ten minutes later the horse is half the odds. Other companies found they have the same problems and end up detailing their tips minutes before the off to try and protect their members interests. Once a paid member has the tip there is no stopping them sharing, selling, or doing what they wants with it. Obviously, it is against the terms and conditions but whose going to take them to court? You don’t even know who it is. But in the process your business is slipping away and there is sod all you can do about it.

How can such a business work?

It’s an old, outdated format that works for no one.

Follow any horse racing tipster and you will see updates detailing changes to their service as they try to counteract impending doom. They simply cannot control the beast. They are on the road to nowhere with the Incredible Hulk at the wheel. His body zapped from Gamma rays. The betting slip in his hand faded and burnt at the edges.

The problems with all tipsters is that they need to have punters putting money into an account that is used to bet. This protects the information. This is next to impossible for your average Joe. Even if they could the liquidity for most racing in the UK is so limited that they are fighting over scraps. Unless you can tap into Asian markets there is little option than keeping the info for yourself.

For this reason I would question the integrity and profitability of most horse racing tipsters if not in the short term definitely in the long term.

It’s a business that needs a coming of age.

The post title is a little presumptive of course, in that my time machine is on the blink. Essentially though, regardless of whether we’re a gambling professional or casual punter we all have our own unique way of picking the horses we bet on. Some approaches more sensible and analytical than others of course, and with the Grand National just around the corner if you’re looking for a method of picking a winner, I present to you five ways to make selection for the Grand National 2024.

Office sweepstakes

If you’re an office worker there is often the standard ‘pick it out of a hat’ or first come first served’ style of horse racing betting when it comes to picking your selection. It’s all just a bit of fun and if yours romps home you get to paint yourself as office savant for the day, and if it doesn’t nobody particularly cares. Should you all be throwing in a bit of money in as the prize, then there may well be peer pressure to ‘reinvest’ it in rounds of drinks if you win, and so it’s not to be taken too seriously!

Cold, hard, analysis

Followers or form and professional gamblers alike often draw assessments of a horses chances and value via statistics and various subjective and objective measures, long before others have considered doing so (if they ever do), and so even though there’s many aspects of luck to the Grand National, these individuals often at least have a foundation and reasoning behind their decisions. That approach doesn’t promise anything on any specific day, but as a long term approach it should eventually pay dividends.

I just like the name / the odds

The average Joe may well like the thrill and the spectacle of the Grant National, but they’re understandably not losing sleep over making a selection. It can often just come down to liking the name of a horse, and preferably alongside it liking the odds too. If a horses name resonates with you, there’s nothing more thrilling than hearing it blare out again and again during the race as you realise you’re ‘somehow’ still in with a shot with a couple of furlongs to go. And if yours romps home, who cares what the reasoning was behind the pick!

Ask a budgie

If you’re a fan of Carry on Films you may well have seen the comical Carry on at your Convenience. One plotline sees a housewife struggle to get their pet budgie Joey to talk. Her and her husband eventually work out that it tweets whenever the name of horses (which go on to win) are read out. This results in several big wins for them. Very unscientific of course but if you do notice a nearby parrot and are short of ideas it’s always an option to have a little whisper in its ear to see what it has to say. Your chances of getting a positive or useful reply are rapidly increased if there happens to be a horse called Polly Wants a Cracker’ running.

Copy a mate

If it’s all too much hassle for you to pick a horse out of the 34 racing (down from 40 in previous years), or you’re pained over your selection, you can always be completely uninventive and just join with a mate with their selection. That way you’re either both either cheering on your selection together or consoling each other them it falls at the first. It’s an opportunity to drink to your joint success, or drown your sorrows aka a good excuse to have a pint!